The Gaza End Game – Two Tales of Betrayal
Author: Fazal Firdausi
The recent assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in the Capital of Iran, who was the former Prime Minister of the state of Palestine and top negotiator to resolve the ongoing hostage issue between Israel and Hamas, reminded me of a scene from the Bollywood (Indian Hindi Film Industry) legendary movie Satya. For those who have never watched Bollywood movies, let me explain Why? The story of Satya revolves around a small-time criminal named “Bhikhu Mhatre”, who becomes Mumbai’s underworld don due to the support and patronage of a local politician. But when the local politician finds out that Bhikhu is no longer required and has become a threat to him (the politician). Bhikhu was killed by the politician himself in a cold-blooded fashion.
Tale of Betrayal – Bhikhu & Haniyeh
I was drawing a parallel between Satya’s scene and the events that unfolded before his (Haniyeh) assassination, which are quite the same. In the movie Satya’s scene, the local politician after winning the elections welcomes Bhikhu with warmth, like Haniyeh, who was greeted by the recently elected President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, and others with hugs and kisses before his death. In the movie, Bhikhu (the don) is killed by the politician. In the case of Haniyeh, he was assassinated in the heart of Tehran, being an official guest to attend the swearing-in ceremony. The backdrop and timing of Haniyeh’s assassination make it more dramatic and movie-like.
Heat on Tehran
As a result, several people on social media are pointing fingers at Tehran for complacency and allowing Mossad to kill Haniyeh in the most secure location of Tehran when all the leaders of the World were in the town to attend the ceremony. Tehran has ferociously refuted such claims and called it Israeli propaganda and conspiracy theories floated by the CIA; however, if we look at the events that have taken place over the past few weeks, we will be able to join the dots and solve the puzzle of Haniyeh’s sacrifice.
Beijing Declaration and Redundancy of Haniyeh
On July 23rd, just one week before Haniyeh’s death, the Chinese brokered a deal between two major factions of the state of Palestine, i.e. Hamas and Fateh. They called it the historic signing of a unity agreement between 14 Palestinian political parties in Beijing. The largest party in Palestine is the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), and the second-largest party is the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC). Mahmoud Abbas, the President of the Palestinian Authority, is the chairman of the Fatah Party. Just to remind you all that in 2007, Mahmoud Abbas dismissed Haniyeh from office due to the then-ongoing Fatah-Hamas conflict. Haniyeh did not acknowledge Abbas’ order and continued to exercise prime ministerial authority in the Gaza Strip. Haniyeh ruled the Gaza Strip till 2017 and later took asylum in Qatar.
It is evident that Iran has proximity to Beijing and Russia. People in Washington and Tel Aviv are very well aware that the October 7th attack on Israel could not have been achieved without the covert and overt support of Iran, its proxies and allies. It was bad luck for Haniyeh that he became the poster boy of the 7th terror attack on Israeli soil. The World has witnessed Israel’s response and the brutal killing of more than thirty thousand people, including kids and women, in the Gaza Strip. Though Israel managed to decimate Gaza and was largely successful in its objectives, Iran, through Hamas and its covert backers, was able to generate seeds of hatred and disgust for the Western powers in general and Israel in particular among the Arabs and other Muslims across the World. The attack also stalled India’s bigger push for direct trade between the East and the West via the Middle East through the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor backed by President Joe Biden. But after the death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi, the warmongers in Iran have developed cold feet. It is believed that Iran convinced Beijing to broker a deal between the warring factions of Palestine. However, in a post-conflict reconciliation scenario, Ismail Haniyeh could have created trouble for both the powers. Also, Netanyahu (Bibi) would have never accepted him in Gaza in any capacity due to domestic political concerns. Hence, Haniyeh needed to be eliminated or made a sacrificial lamb. A deal between the Axis of Evil and the Axis of Resistance must have been brokered by a friend of Israel far North near the Arctic Ocean.
World After Donald Trump Re-election
The politics in the United States has also changed after the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. His approval ratings have improved. He has been endorsed by all his opponents in the Republican party. Many hardcore Democrats have openly said on social media that his return for the second term is imminent unless Kamala wins it miraculously. In the case of the return of Trump, Russia will be able to clinch a deal in the Gaza Strip. Israel has already obliterated the Gaza Strip and avenged the death of its citizens. The assassination of Haniyeh has come as a great relief for Bibi like it was Osama Bin Laden for Obama and Baghdadi for Donald Trump. In the given scenario, the end game of the Gaza Strip is very near. We have to wait till October. Till that time, small flares and skirmishes will continue, and then the dust will settle down eventually before Christmas 2024.
Can Iran Afford a War?
Iran and its internal defences have been very badly exposed by a series of assassinations of its top military brass, and now Ismail Haniyeh is in the heart of its capital, Tehran. The World is still unaware of the real causes of the death of its previous President and Foreign Minister. IRGC is not able to protect its most important figures from Israeli open attacks. Iran has been facing an economic crisis due to a ban on the export of oil. There is pressure from moderates to liberalise the country. It is also facing problems of internal security, which shows that the hold of the Islamic revolutionaries is loosening. Forty years after the Islamic revolution, the younger generation is not convinced of the revolutionary ideas. It is no longer a call of duty to protect the Imam since they are disenchanted due to the exposure to social media and Western education, as we have witnessed in other countries of West Asia. Iran is not in a position to fight a war with Israel and the United States. They may drop some random missiles in the Negev desert in the days to come, but full-fledged war seems impossible unless Netanyahu decides to bomb Qom, the seat of Imam Khomeini.
In Politics, loyalty is just a word, but in reality it is a circus of betrayal, treachery and broken promises.